Sweet, thanks!
For simpler math, we're just going to assume the car is at 2 load the entire rpm range from 2k rpm on up. 100 degree day, 30 degree CAT increase for the OEM FMIC and 10 degrees for aftermarket. Again, just for math for this discussion.
The OEM FMIC, stage 1 starts at -16.7 degrees timing and accelerates through to 6250 rpm. At 6250 rpm there is a 30 degree delta increase, so we're going to subtract 3.75 degrees (-62.5 * .06) from the -1 degrees of base timing to arrive at -4.75. This is timing at full-rpm, full temp. For discussion, this is your max safe timing due to your mechanical setup.
The aftermarket FMIC, stage 2 is going to start at the same -16.7 degrees of timing, but at full song we're only removing 1.5 degrees (-25 * .06) from the 1 degree base timing to arrive at -.5 degrees. This is timing at full-rpm, full temp. By comparison, this would be the OEM FMIC stage 1 on roughly a 80 degree charge temp (read-starting the pull on a 50 degree day)...
Now we're on the stage 2 tune with OEM FMIC. At 6250 rpm we see total timing to be -2.75 degrees (1 + (-3.75) from above). Assuming your car needed to pull the additional 2 degrees for max safe timing, this is the equivalent of seeing nearly 150 degree CAT's...and that also assumes that you didn't see a larger delta due to the increased boost during the rpm sweep and increased timing from above 4k rpm.
Now let's assume you're seeing the typical KS advances on stage 1 with your OEM FMIC. You'll probably max out at four and stay there, though some don't get that far and hit the knock threshold enough to have timing removed before seeing it climb again. This means that as your timing increases due to the stage 2 tune, you're going to hit the knock threshold faster and more often. Definitely not dangerous once, but you're going to hit it multiple times every time you go WOT. Just like everyone has been saying, you're sacrificing safety/longevity.
Your engine doesn't care what temperature it is outside, only what temperature it is using for combustion. This is very over-simplified for discussion and omits a lot of other variables, and maybe my math is even wrong (though it should be close enough for discussion). Either way, you wanted math so here it is and now available for peer review.