Aging tuner drivers vs aging muscle drivers: different world?

[jmrtsus]

Just saw in the news that since last year Virginia passed a law to follow CARB emissions rules, they have to ban ICE cars now too.

No they don't "have to" follow a Cali law 13 years from now.....nobody does.

 

[Dialcaliper]

No they don't "have to" follow a Cali law 13 years from now.....nobody does.

Technically what happened is that Virginia and other states actually passed state laws saying explicitly that they would follow the CARB motor vehicle emissions regulations by provision of “Section 117” of the Federal Clean Air Act. Basically they are complying with the Federal law by opting to piggyback the California CARB code instead of spending tons of money and research effort to come up with a different competing standard of their own, because lots of people aren’t happy with the EPA that isn’t taking action because of the political tug of war in DC

Sure there will be challenges in court, but because of how it’s set up, any state following the requirement is technically legally required to comply, unless they change their law back, which unless there’s a credible alternate standard (even the default EPA standard) will face considerable political opposition, especially since the major automakers have signed on to the deal

California has not actually explicitly banned combusition engines. What they did do is set a steadily increasing target requirement for the percentage of new car sales to be “Zero Emissions Vehicles” which culminates in a 100% number.

Far from as sensational as news outlets get, California’s definition of a “ZEV” includes not just Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV), but also explicitly includes both Hydrogen fuel cell (and possibly hydrogen combustion), and more critically, Plug-In Hybrid (PHEV) vehicles that can have, you guessed it, gasoline powered combustion engines. The definition of a PHEV includes some minimum required battery only range to qualify, which does mean that stop-start and mild and normal hybrids do not meet the cut.

It also looks like only some manufacturers (based on total sales volume) are allowed to count PHEVs towards the requirement.

Furthermore, it is a “credit” based system, meaning that at least until the requirement hits 100%, companies can elect to offset the requirement by buying credits from companies like Tesla that produce more than the required percent of sales. Presumably that means the credits will basically go away in 2035, but it also means PHEVs are still going to be around for some manufacturers that have smaller R&D budgets.

The specific language is:

BMW, Fiat Chrysler, Ford, General Motors, Honda, Hyundai, Kia, Mercedes, Nissan, Toyota, and Volkswagen must comply with the new requirements. Five smaller manufacturers (Jaguar Land Rover, Mitsubishi, Mazda, Subaru, and Volvo) are also required to comply with the ZEV requirements, but may meet their obligation with plug-in hybrids.

Of course the high level legal requirements, and how each state chooses to implement them can be drastically different. For example not every state requires that CARB EO’s be followed, and some states still have safety inspections where California doesn’t.

 

[gtx3076]

I think ICE cars will just become a niche in the future as the supply begins to dry up and the generations age out. These are first world "problems". There's always someone that will laud cars with carburetors, straight cut gears, 3 on the tree, etc. Hobbyists will find a way, especially thanks to the internet, and as 3D printing improves. But I would be surprised if we don't see some fun, small electric cars to hit the corners with. Coming from the 2.3 DISI motor, I didn't understand as some in that community moved to the smaller 1.6 Fiesta, but now that I've made the switch I really don't miss the old cumbersome tech of the mazdaspeed.

For everyone else I think it will be good for there to be less dependence on cars to maintain a middle income lifestyle. More remote work, more public transit, more bicycling, less congestion on the roads for people that need to be physically present at work.

 

[M-Sport fan]

For everyone else I think it will be good for there to be less dependence on cars to maintain a middle income lifestyle. More remote work, more public transit, more bicycling, less congestion on the roads for people that need to be physically present at work.

THIS I can really support, as once one actually rides a bicycle out on the open roads, the need for wide bike lane shoulders becomes existentially apparent.

It's bad enough that I have coal rollin' effing peckerwoods trying to run me off of the roads while out training, but to have these NO SHOULDER AT ALL ribbons to make it easier for these asswipes is flat out criminal.

 

[Intuit]

THIS I can really support, as once one actually rides a bicycle out on the open roads, the need for wide bike lane shoulders becomes existentially apparent.

It's bad enough that I have coal rollin' effing peckerwoods trying to run me off of the roads while out training, but to have these NO SHOULDER AT ALL ribbons to make it easier for these asswipes is flat out criminal.

BE CAREFUL. Cyclist was killed on the roads a couple of months ago here. I've ruined some wheels on the sidewalks before but they've fixed a lot of those walks since then and can manage decent speeds on them for my typical routes. With rare exception I just try to stay off the main roads altogether and frequent paved trails, sidestreets and those with little traffic or like you say, wwiiidddeee bike lanes. A crap ton of areas don't have sidewalks or bike lanes though. For safety, with rare exception I avoid those areas.

I truly don't get the disrespect for Prius drivers and cyclists. Okay I can see for cases where they tie-up busy roads but that's the exception for most areas. I mean, sometimes people feather the accelerator because they're using a 3-ton gas-burner as a daily-driver. But they're the exception.

 

[gtx3076]

THIS I can really support, as once one actually rides a bicycle out on the open roads, the need for wide bike lane shoulders becomes existentially apparent.

It's bad enough that I have coal rollin' effing peckerwoods trying to run me off of the roads while out training, but to have these NO SHOULDER AT ALL ribbons to make it easier for these asswipes is flat out criminal.

I really can't comprehend what compels people to roll coal on pedestrians and bicyclists. That's really messed up.

I lived in a city where it was preferable to bike around town than drive because of small streets and limited parking.

 

[esp_martin]

I think the polarized views of America just have people parroting both sides. No one has mentioned yet that there will most likely be carve-outs in ICE sale bans for hybrid vehicles. So there will be a middle road.

Why?

Because as someone else posted here, there will still be a need for diesel. Which means there will always be leftover crude oil that will have to be used for...something (for those who don't know, you can only use so much of crude for diesel; what's left is used to make gasoline/jet fuel/etc...or in the case of the USA, vice versa). I mean trains have been long haul hybrids for decades.

Most EVs have a hypothetical MPG. So while a hybrid can't get 100 eMPG, it can get somewhere close to 50-60mpg. There will be carmakers who will try to fill that void. Most likely Toyota/Honda and Indian car companies who will likely rely on diesel for the next half century. So instead of 4,6,8 cylinders we will have 1,2,3,4 cylinder engines. With a 4cyl powering a battery that propels an 18wheeler.

That's my guess anyway. The ICE infrastructure will remain in most of the world outside of Western Europe (which uses trains and bicycles way more anyway). I don't see that changing in the next 30-50 years.

So to answer your question, i think there will still be a tuner scene in 20-30 years but those vehicles will be EXPENSIVE and 2-3cyl powered AWD rally type vehicles where lightweight trumps power.

 

[thecman02]

Main topic: I don't think we have to worry about "ICE" cars disappearing in our lifetime. I think most of the general population is slowly warming up to electric cars and that's fine for the average person. All the people that treat vehicles as just a way to get from point A to B will just follow along. Once "ICE" vehicles are the minority it will hopefully be the people that want the "ice" vehicle because they like them. It will get to a point where the magic of keeping a vehicle like that going will be higher cost of ownership than electric. At this point us "ICE" drivers will be waving at each other like I do to other motorcyclists now.

Side note on cycling:
As a serious cyclist I've seen all the hate from ignorant people, but I've also noticed the trends towards a larger majority of the population becoming more respectful as a whole. People are waiting more often giving me more then a few feet when they pass, and less people telling me to get off the road. It also helps that I accelerate off the line harder than most people driving nowadays and can ride 25mph for at least minutes at a time.

The thing that always grinds my gears the most is the people arguing that cyclists don't pay their share for the road. Like I don't pay money to register two motorcycles, three cars, and I still drive almost 20k miles a year and pay gas tax. I probably bicycle a couple thousand miles on the road a year. The rest being on mountain bike trail.

 

[Dialcaliper]

I think the polarized views of America just have people parroting both sides. No one has mentioned yet that there will most likely be carve-outs in ICE sale bans for hybrid vehicles. So there will be a middle road.

Why?

Because as someone else posted here, there will still be a need for diesel. Which means there will always be leftover crude oil that will have to be used for...something (for those who don't know, you can only use so much of crude for diesel; what's left is used to make gasoline/jet fuel/etc...or in the case of the USA, vice versa). I mean trains have been long haul hybrids for decades.

Most EVs have a hypothetical MPG. So while a hybrid can't get 100 eMPG, it can get somewhere close to 50-60mpg. There will be carmakers who will try to fill that void. Most likely Toyota/Honda and Indian car companies who will likely rely on diesel for the next half century. So instead of 4,6,8 cylinders we will have 1,2,3,4 cylinder engines. With a 4cyl powering a battery that propels an 18wheeler.

That's my guess anyway. The ICE infrastructure will remain in most of the world outside of Western Europe (which uses trains and bicycles way more anyway). I don't see that changing in the next 30-50 years.

So to answer your question, i think there will still be a tuner scene in 20-30 years but those vehicles will be EXPENSIVE and 2-3cyl powered AWD rally type vehicles where lightweight trumps power.

That’s a good point.

Irony of ironies though is that most low sulfur diesel these days is synthesized from natural gas, and the actual 10-12 chain diesel fraction from the crude, which has too much sulfur, is cracked and refined into 6-8 chain to become gasoline. By that logic, there will for much longer be a market for extracted natural gas than crude oil, most of which will go into plastics and other markets (pharmaceutical, etc) as plant-based plastics only meet a tiny (mostly disposable) fraction of the market.

Looking ahead, I can imagine when kids today are all adults looking back, they’ll be saying, Wait, you had all that extracted petroleum, and you just BURNED it? What were you thinking?”

Petroleum products will be around for decades even if burning fossil “fuels” go the way of the Dodo.

 

[akiraproject24]

Yup I love seeing tesla's being charged by diesel and gas powered generators...oh wait, that's how the grid is powered too so it makes sense to strip mine Africa and leave hazardous waste lithium craters all over the place. Its about control over you not saving the planet. Waiting for the pansies to report my post...

 

[gtx3076]

Yup I love seeing tesla's being charged by diesel and gas powered generators...oh wait, that's how the grid is powered too so it makes sense to strip mine Africa and leave hazardous waste lithium craters all over the place. Its about control over you not saving the planet. Waiting for the pansies to report my post...

Just depends on where your power source comes from. This is 3 years old but engineering explained dug into it.

View: https://youtu.be/6RhtiPefVzM


The “cleanest” thing to do would be just to be less energy hungry. The Amish probably live “greener” than anyone here, but most people aren’t interested in living like that.

 

[thecman02]

Speaking of charging. I read a report that California is wasting over 20% of its energy generation during late morning hours because places of work don't have charging stations. There is lots of low hanging fruit so to speak. I'm just thankful I'm not paying for this stupidity. I did an energy audit on a family member that lives out there and we reduced his energy bill hundreds of dollars by optimizing all his energy usage/net metering.

 

[Intuit]

The Amish probably live “greener” than anyone here, but most people aren’t interested in living like that.

I'm sure the horses (and street cleaners) are happy about that.

 

[Ford ST]

Yup I love seeing tesla's being charged by diesel and gas powered generators...oh wait, that's how the grid is powered too so it makes sense to strip mine Africa and leave hazardous waste lithium craters all over the place. Its about control over you not saving the planet. Waiting for the pansies to report my post...

The municipality I work for has its own electric department it is part of a Co-Op. All of the power comes from a Nucular power plant. Yes lots of power is generated from fossil fuels currently, but a lot of power is also generated from other things. I can think of nothing more free than the ability to store your own energy. I can't produce gasoline nor can you. But I can buy batteries and I can buy solar panels. I could live off the grid if I wanted to and store my own energy. I have a sister-in-law whose parents live in Maine their new home is off the grid as in batteries, and solar panels.They are loggers so I wouldn't call them pansies.

Anyway we can just agree to disagre.



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[M-Sport fan]

Side note on cycling:
As a serious cyclist I've seen all the hate from ignorant people, but I've also noticed the trends towards a larger majority of the population becoming more respectful as a whole. People are waiting more often giving me more then a few feet when they pass, and less people telling me to get off the road. It also helps that I accelerate off the line harder than most people driving nowadays and can ride 25mph for at least minutes at a time.

THANK YOU!!!

Yes, now that I am in an let's just say 'enlightened' (and quite 'bike friendly') area of Joyzee, the vast majority of drivers are almost TOO courteous, and sometimes swing way too far into the oncoming lanes to give me room, as I ride very straight and steady even when spinning like mad at 110 rpm, or blasting a tailwind 30 MPH section, and as far to the right as possible whether there is a big bike lane designated shoulder, or nothing at all but grass, or a ditch at the edge of the road.

Even the types one would expect to harass, roll coal on you, and run you off of the road/hit you here are at least 'civil', and don't overtly express their vitriol (if they have any) towards riders, maybe because of the attitude of (most of) the rest of the general populace around here.

Riding on Speedplay Zero pedals, I really do not like unclipping at all, so I try to wait, and time the stop lights to catch the green, and yes, then accelerate away from said light/intersection in a lower gear quicker than most of these drivers would leave the light anyway, so NOT 'in their way' at all.

 

[akiraproject24]

The municipality I work for has its own electric department it is part of a Co-Op. All of the power comes from a Nucular power plant. Yes lots of power is generated from fossil fuels currently, but a lot of power is also generated from other things. I can think of nothing more free than the ability to store your own energy. I can't produce gasoline nor can you. But I can buy batteries and I can buy solar panels. I could live off the grid if I wanted to and store my own energy. I have a sister-in-law whose parents live in Maine their new home is off the grid as in batteries, and solar panels.They are loggers so I wouldn't call them pansies.

Anyway we can just agree to disagre.



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I was aiming at post reporters with the flower comment not anyone in particular especially not towards those using batts to get off grid.

I dont mean harm, I see a dangerous police state growing around us and any attempt to warn others usually results in.....problems. I mean well.

 

[Ford ST]

I was aiming at post reporters with the flower comment not anyone in particular especially not towards those using batts to get off grid.

I dont mean harm, I see a dangerous police state growing around us and any attempt to warn others usually results in.....problems. I mean well.

I understand. The city I work for likes to search peoples garbage to find evidence drugs to get warrants to kick people's door down. Not a fan of that at all.

Pansies are actually a really tough flower. They over winter well in my area I like to plant lots of them in the fall.

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[gtx3076]

I understand. The city I work for likes to search peoples garbage to find evidence drugs to get warrants to kick people's door down. Not a fan of that at all.

Pansies are actually a really tough flower. They over winter well in my area I like to plant lots of them in the fall.

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That’s funny you mention pansies because I had the same thought, but I knew what he meant.

We install outdoor flower pot arrangements and pansies are one of the hardiest plants that still manage to look good after enduring some tough conditions.

Some other plants may survive too, but they rarely look as good as a pansy when doing it. We even lost a lot of rosemary last year which are supposed to be good for winter. I think the crazy temperature swings we had down here never let them go dormant.